Comments on: May I “pop” your bubble? http://www.teamreba.com/blog/2007/12/07/may-i-pop-your-bubble/ Seattle real estate and related wealth management topics Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:47:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Reba Haas http://www.teamreba.com/blog/2007/12/07/may-i-pop-your-bubble/#comment-371 Reba Haas Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:00:46 +0000 http://www.teamreba.com/blog/2007/12/07/may-i-pop-your-bubble/#comment-371 I was wondering if and when the Seattle Bubble blog would find my comments. Usually they've attacked me in my writings on Rain City Guide (www.raincityguide.com). WIth only 2 years of being in existence and coming in at the end of what was an unusually long run of appreciation it's not surprising that *some* of their comments about the slow down have been realized. But, what kills me is that they've tried to say that industry professionals, such as me, have all had our head in the sand and that we've promoted the false belief that appreciation will always go up (not true). Don't generalize an entire industry. There is enough long term data about the Seattle marketplace and what has happened over many decades of real estate sales to show that there cannot be regular and consistent growth year over year. Economics and local market conditions just won't allow it. Realistic professionals, and I count myself among them, know that this cannot be true. What we can do is temper people going into panic. The media has done a fine job of making the housing woes of the national scene look like it has immediate impact on our local economy - and while there may be some impact it cannot be generallized. What makes big headlines for the nation doesn't always hold true for the individual. If we were in Michigan where the economy has been tanking and house prices have fallen dramatically, I'd say we were right in line with the headlines we read daily. But, we aren't Michigan - or Vegas - or Phoenix - or Miami - or San Diego. Yes, if our local economy started to tank recent real estate purchasers might be in a world of hurt but only on paper or if they suddenly had to sell because of a hardship or relocation (or similar). I have a local friend whose new wife (she's in NJ) is being impacted this way because she can't move out here to be with him (long distance romance and now marriage) till her house sells. It's been on market for a couple of months now with not much activity and since she's only owned it a couple of years she's trying to not lose money on it. But, that's been a typical issue in real estate for years. Most people know that it costs money to sell a house so the first 1-2 years are possible losses anyway unless you're in an area where hyper-appreciation has occurred. Anyhow, enough for today on this matter... I was wondering if and when the Seattle Bubble blog would find my comments. Usually they’ve attacked me in my writings on Rain City Guide (www.raincityguide.com). WIth only 2 years of being in existence and coming in at the end of what was an unusually long run of appreciation it’s not surprising that *some* of their comments about the slow down have been realized. But, what kills me is that they’ve tried to say that industry professionals, such as me, have all had our head in the sand and that we’ve promoted the false belief that appreciation will always go up (not true). Don’t generalize an entire industry.

There is enough long term data about the Seattle marketplace and what has happened over many decades of real estate sales to show that there cannot be regular and consistent growth year over year. Economics and local market conditions just won’t allow it. Realistic professionals, and I count myself among them, know that this cannot be true. What we can do is temper people going into panic. The media has done a fine job of making the housing woes of the national scene look like it has immediate impact on our local economy - and while there may be some impact it cannot be generallized. What makes big headlines for the nation doesn’t always hold true for the individual.

If we were in Michigan where the economy has been tanking and house prices have fallen dramatically, I’d say we were right in line with the headlines we read daily. But, we aren’t Michigan - or Vegas - or Phoenix - or Miami - or San Diego. Yes, if our local economy started to tank recent real estate purchasers might be in a world of hurt but only on paper or if they suddenly had to sell because of a hardship or relocation (or similar). I have a local friend whose new wife (she’s in NJ) is being impacted this way because she can’t move out here to be with him (long distance romance and now marriage) till her house sells. It’s been on market for a couple of months now with not much activity and since she’s only owned it a couple of years she’s trying to not lose money on it. But, that’s been a typical issue in real estate for years. Most people know that it costs money to sell a house so the first 1-2 years are possible losses anyway unless you’re in an area where hyper-appreciation has occurred.

Anyhow, enough for today on this matter…

]]> By: Tim http://www.teamreba.com/blog/2007/12/07/may-i-pop-your-bubble/#comment-255 Tim Tue, 25 Dec 2007 04:41:51 +0000 http://www.teamreba.com/blog/2007/12/07/may-i-pop-your-bubble/#comment-255 Wow, what a very condescending post. I'm just curious though, if SeattleBubble is a "broken clock" how come Team Reba with all their well-rounded resources and research weren't able to predict the downturn? I think i would find you more credible if you were able to better job of predicting market conditions in Seattle, because it sounds like you are implying you are privy to more information and more experience than anyone else. Expert don't generally speak with vagueness such as: "say that I lean only one direction and that the market will continue to run up forever here. " Hard to argue with "Forever." Wow, what a very condescending post. I’m just curious though, if SeattleBubble is a “broken clock” how come Team Reba with all their well-rounded resources and research weren’t able to predict the downturn?

I think i would find you more credible if you were able to better job of predicting market conditions in Seattle, because it sounds like you are implying you are privy to more information and more experience than anyone else.

Expert don’t generally speak with vagueness such as:

“say that I lean only one direction and that the market will continue to run up forever here. ”

Hard to argue with “Forever.”

]]> By: Seattle Bubble » Blog Archive » Are Bubble Bloggers a Stopped Clock? http://www.teamreba.com/blog/2007/12/07/may-i-pop-your-bubble/#comment-252 Seattle Bubble » Blog Archive » Are Bubble Bloggers a Stopped Clock? Mon, 24 Dec 2007 14:01:47 +0000 http://www.teamreba.com/blog/2007/12/07/may-i-pop-your-bubble/#comment-252 [...] These days though, the tone of the remarks is a little… different. Instead of “Seattle Bubble is wrong,” now it has turned to “Seattle Bubble is only right because they are like a stopped clock. If you keep saying the same thing all the time, eventually you’ll be right.” Here are a few recent examples: With respect to the Seattle Bubble blog site my guess is that like a broken clock you can be right at least 2x a day. - Reba [...] […] These days though, the tone of the remarks is a little… different. Instead of “Seattle Bubble is wrong,” now it has turned to “Seattle Bubble is only right because they are like a stopped clock. If you keep saying the same thing all the time, eventually you’ll be right.” Here are a few recent examples: With respect to the Seattle Bubble blog site my guess is that like a broken clock you can be right at least 2x a day. - Reba […]

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