May I “pop” your bubble?
The Seattle Bubble site gets a lot of hits for its real estate posts and I’ve found myself as the topic or at least an ancillary target of some of the commentary from the writers regarding local real estate. I thought it might be interesting to show a different side of the coin to our readers since I believe that providing different views is important to helping people understand or at least open up conversation about the market place with respect to real estate. With respect to the Seattle Bubble blog site my guess is that like a broken clock you can be right at least 2x a day. This blog has been saying for a very long time that our marketplace would implode and perhaps, depending on what your definition of that is, then maybe you’ll agree with his perspective. Personally, I like to look at all the factors and to try not to limit my view although I will admit that in the blogging world because you only write on subjects in short prose for limited periods of time each day (or week) that it’s difficult to get into full, well-rounded discussions about subject matter so there is a risk of leaving out applicable data here and there - or you have to try and catalogue all the topics to get to within a reasonable time line to make a full argument one way or the other over a subject/topic.
While I frequently don’t agree with the nay-sayers about some of the market expectations I will never say that I lean only one direction and that the market will continue to run up forever here. That, for one, would be absurd - and, two, would be economically impossible to sustain.
What I have been saying for a long time is that the Seattle marketplace would not experience the same downturn that many areas of the country have experienced recently. Now, that doesn’t mean that we wouldn’t soften from an appreciation standpoint - and we have had that happen - but it also doesn’t mean that I fit into a “it’s always sunny” attitude and that my head is in the sand about what is happening in my industry despite what some of these guys will try to make you believe.
I’m too tied into a lot of what goes on to not see it, and even better than that, I feel that I’ve got a pretty good grasp of how the market affects the consumer because of my daily involvement in this line of work - and I’m not blogging about real estate as a sideline to my “regular job”. My “real” job is to be aware of real estate market conditions and the factors that impact it on a daily basis.
One of the things I like about the practice we have developed here at Team Reba is our mix of residential and commercial business. With it we are able to see a broader perspective of what’s happening in the marketplace and we are in touch with many other professionals who are dealing regularly with the business people that help run and fund the Washington State economy. We also tend to research reports from very credible sources such as the Washington Center for Real Estate Research run out of Washington State University. Access here for an interesting executive summary for the Fall of 2007. We also use resources such as Dupre + Scott, who are the premier researchers and data compilers of apartment data for the state. Besides this we research many other trade organizations, research firms, real estate organizations, and more.
For those people that have already chosen to work with us as our clients, you know that we do our homework. If you haven’t yet given us a try then you might want to consider it - you won’t be disappointed, and I promise not to “burst your bubble”. 
[…] These days though, the tone of the remarks is a little… different. Instead of “Seattle Bubble is wrong,” now it has turned to “Seattle Bubble is only right because they are like a stopped clock. If you keep saying the same thing all the time, eventually you’ll be right.” Here are a few recent examples: With respect to the Seattle Bubble blog site my guess is that like a broken clock you can be right at least 2x a day. - Reba […]
Pingback by Seattle Bubble » Blog Archive » Are Bubble Bloggers a Stopped Clock? — December 24, 2007 @ 7:01 am
Wow, what a very condescending post. I’m just curious though, if SeattleBubble is a “broken clock” how come Team Reba with all their well-rounded resources and research weren’t able to predict the downturn?
I think i would find you more credible if you were able to better job of predicting market conditions in Seattle, because it sounds like you are implying you are privy to more information and more experience than anyone else.
Expert don’t generally speak with vagueness such as:
“say that I lean only one direction and that the market will continue to run up forever here. ”
Hard to argue with “Forever.”
Comment by Tim — December 24, 2007 @ 9:41 pm
I was wondering if and when the Seattle Bubble blog would find my comments. Usually they’ve attacked me in my writings on Rain City Guide (www.raincityguide.com). WIth only 2 years of being in existence and coming in at the end of what was an unusually long run of appreciation it’s not surprising that *some* of their comments about the slow down have been realized. But, what kills me is that they’ve tried to say that industry professionals, such as me, have all had our head in the sand and that we’ve promoted the false belief that appreciation will always go up (not true). Don’t generalize an entire industry.
There is enough long term data about the Seattle marketplace and what has happened over many decades of real estate sales to show that there cannot be regular and consistent growth year over year. Economics and local market conditions just won’t allow it. Realistic professionals, and I count myself among them, know that this cannot be true. What we can do is temper people going into panic. The media has done a fine job of making the housing woes of the national scene look like it has immediate impact on our local economy - and while there may be some impact it cannot be generallized. What makes big headlines for the nation doesn’t always hold true for the individual.
If we were in Michigan where the economy has been tanking and house prices have fallen dramatically, I’d say we were right in line with the headlines we read daily. But, we aren’t Michigan - or Vegas - or Phoenix - or Miami - or San Diego. Yes, if our local economy started to tank recent real estate purchasers might be in a world of hurt but only on paper or if they suddenly had to sell because of a hardship or relocation (or similar). I have a local friend whose new wife (she’s in NJ) is being impacted this way because she can’t move out here to be with him (long distance romance and now marriage) till her house sells. It’s been on market for a couple of months now with not much activity and since she’s only owned it a couple of years she’s trying to not lose money on it. But, that’s been a typical issue in real estate for years. Most people know that it costs money to sell a house so the first 1-2 years are possible losses anyway unless you’re in an area where hyper-appreciation has occurred.
Anyhow, enough for today on this matter…
Comment by Reba Haas — January 3, 2008 @ 12:00 pm